Line Shopping: We Measured How Much the Same Bet Costs at Different Books

Here is something most bettors never check: the exact same prop, the same player, the same line, costs a different amount depending on which app you place it in. Not sometimes, almost always. We pulled every major sportsbook’s price on thousands of player props. Then we measured the gap. As a result, line shopping turns out to be worth more than most people think.

What We Looked At

On a single day in October, we compared every major US sportsbook’s price on about 3,800 player props. These were the ones offered at three or more books, across the NFL, MLB, and more. Same player, same market, same line. Next, we just lined up what each book was charging for the identical bet. Finally, we measured the difference.

The Books Disagree on Almost Everything

On 99 percent of those props, the books did not agree on the price. For nearly every single bet on the board, there was a better number sitting at one book than at another. This was for the exact same wager.

The Gap Is Real Money

On a typical prop, the best available price paid about $8 to $10 more per $100 than the average book. Furthermore, it paid roughly $17 more than the worst book. On 74 percent of props, the best price beat the average by at least $5 per $100.

Those numbers sound small until you stack them. Bet $100 a few times a week, take the first price you see each time, and you have handed the books hundreds of dollars over a season for nothing. You did not lose those bets. However, you just overpaid to make them.

Why This Happens

Books are not trying to match each other. Each sets its own number off its own model and its own customers. In fact, player props move the most because they are the softest, least efficient market on the board. A line that is -115 at one book can be -130 at the next. It can even be +100 at a third, same prop, same minute. The book is counting on you not to check.

Line Shopping Is the Easiest Edge in Betting

So check. Before you place a prop, see what each of your books is charging. After that, take the best number. It is the closest thing to free money in the game, because you are not predicting anything. Instead, you are just refusing to overpay.

That is the whole reason LFG lines up every connected book’s price on one screen and marks the best one. Not so you bet more. Rather, so you stop donating the gap to the house on bets you were already going to make.

The Takeaway

The same bet does not cost the same everywhere, and on 99 percent of props it is not even close. The best price is worth about $8 to $10 per $100 over the average book. This happens every time you bother to look. The bettors who last are not just better at picking. Instead, they are better at paying, and paying less for the identical bet is the easiest edge there is.

Download LFG Sports AI free on the App Store or Google Play.

LFG Sports AI is a tracking and analytics tool. It does not accept bets or guarantee outcomes. Please bet responsibly.